基于2012年新疆13个地州市726位农民的调查数据，利用二元Logistic回归模型，分析农民的商业养老保险购买意愿及其影响因素，利用Multiple Response 分析方法，分析农民不愿意购买商业养老保险的原因。结果显示，农民的商业养老保险购买意愿尽管仍较低，但与2005年的调查结果相比，农民的购买意愿已经有了大幅度提高；文化程度、社会流动、家庭储蓄规模、商业养老保险的市场可及性和新型农村社会养老保险试点情况，显著影响了农民的商业养老保险购买意愿；没有钱购买、保险费太高、不了解保险产品和不相信保险公司是农民不愿意购买商业养老保险的四个主要原因，其中，排在首位的不是农民没有钱购买，而是农民不了解保险产品。因此，拓展农村商业养老保险市场的首要任务不是尽快提高农民的收入水平，而是如何尽可能地提高农民对商业养老保险的了解程度。%Abts ract:This paper analyses peasants'purchase intention and its influence factors by binary logistic model and analyses the reasons why peasants didn't want to buy endowment insurance by the method of multiple response based on seven hundred and twenty-six peasants’ survey data coming from thirteen districts in Sinkiang.The results showed that peasants’ purchase intention is still low, but peasants'purchase intention had significant-ly increased compared with the survey result of 2005.These independent variables containing degree of education, social mobility, family savings scale , market accessibility of commercial endowment insurance and pilot situation of rural social endowment insurance influenced peasants'purchase intention markedly.No money to pay for it, unreasonable insurance product price, unfamiliar with insurance products and unbelieving the insurance company is the four chief reasons why peasants didn’t want to buy commercial endowment insurance.The main reason is not peasants having no money but peasants unfamiliar with the insurance products.So, the top priority to expand the market of commercial endowment insurance is not to increase peasants’ income level as soon as people but to help peasants to understand the insurance products as far as possible.
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