针对监测应力的复杂构成及监测数据较低的使用效率，提出一种基于统计理论的新型桥梁应力趋势预测评估方法．该方法主要基于统计理论，将季节性荷载、随机性荷载产生的应力从应力监测值中分离，然后准确观测并拟合结构退化所引起的应力变化趋势，最后对结构退化过程给出理论预测，并以此准确量化评估结构安全性能．该方法在整个评估过程中可充分利用每一个监测数据，并可实时根据新的观测数据进行评估修正．通过在实桥的成功应用，证明了基于统计理论的新型桥梁应力趋势预测评估方法的优势性．%To deal with the complex constituent of measured stress and low efficiency of utilizing the vast measured data, this paper developed a new approach for the prediction of stress development and condition assess- ment of bridge structures based on statistics theory. This method separates the stress with seasonal distribution and stochastic distribution from the whole measured stress using the statistics theory. By doing this, the stress development due to the structure deterioration can be observed and theoretically predicted, which gives a quanti- fiable structure assessment. Every data measured in the real-time measurement can be used to give the assess- ment results and each newly-measured data in future can be applied to further update the results. A case study was finally conducted to show and prove the advantages of the proposed method.
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