楔体稳定性概率分析方法及应用

摘要

为综合分析参数具有多种不确定性的楔体的稳定性,提出一种基于Fisher最优分割法和盲数理论的楔体稳定性概率分析方法,该方法通过构造基于Fisher最优分割法的楔体稳定性盲数评价模型,综合考虑楔体参数的多种不确定性,确定楔体稳定性概率分布.文章构建了单滑面与双滑面的不确定性楔体稳定性盲数评价模型,将该模型应用于经典的双滑面楔体稳定性分析之中,并与传统的均值安全系数、数值模拟、蒙特卡洛抽样(MCS)方法的结果进行对比,结果表明:均值安全系数法和swedge数值分析只能给出一个固定的安全系数,准确度较低,不能考虑楔体的失稳概率,基于Fisher最优分割法和盲数理论的楔体稳定性分析方法安全系数累计频率与公认比较准确的蒙特卡洛抽样方法几乎重合,并且更加的高效简便,验证了该方法的可靠性与有效性.最后,将该方法应用于兴城某楔体的稳定性评价,为楔体的防治提供数据支撑.%To comprehensively analyze the wedge stability whose parameters have various uncertainties, a method was proposed to analyze the stability of wedge probability based on blind data theory and Fisher optimal segmentation method. A blind data evaluation model of wedge stability considering a variety of wedge parameter uncertainties was created to determine the wedge stability. The evaluation model of the blind number of the stability of the wedge was given, and the model was applied to the classical double-wedge stabilization, in which the result was compared with that from the traditional mean safety coefficient, numerical simulation, and Monte Carlo sampling ( MCS) . The compared results show that the result of evaluation model of wedge stability based on blind data theory and Fisher optimal segmentation method is coincident with the generally accepted MCS method, which verifies the reliability and efficiency of the proposed method. The proposed method was applied to the stability evaluation of the wedge in Xingcheng to provide data support for the prevention and control of the wedge.