1959-1961中国大饥荒：成因、分布与解释

摘要

From 1959 to 1961,the most devastating famine in modern human history occurred in China,re-sulting in large numbers of unnatural deaths.The present paper conducts a systematic retrospect of and interpre-tation on the disaster in the aspects of cause,outcome and distribution,and points out that the interpretation by the exiting researches cannot explain the above mentioned factors sufficiently,leading to many suspicious points. Based on this,the paper puts forward an interpretative framework which integrates hypotheses from multiple per-spectives;constructs a collaborative circle which includes a central decision -making layer,local government executive layers and a farmer feedback layer;and analyzes whether the influence of abnormalities of information exchange affected the spread,the alleviation and the ending of the famine.%1959—1961年中国发生了现代人类史上最为惨重的饥荒，导致了人口大量非正常死亡。本文对大饥荒成因、终结和分布差异原因进行了系统回顾和评述，指出现有研究的解释力度不足，存在诸多可疑之处。在此基础之上，提出了一个能融合多个观点的解释性框架，构建了一个中央决策层、地方政府实施层和农民反馈层互动博弈圈，分析了信息流交换异常与否对饥荒蔓延、缓解和终结的影响。