经济稳定与经济增长的波动轨迹、动态特征及动力机制分析

摘要

This paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation index system to measure the economic stability in China since 1978.It shows that economic stability has a ten years fluctuation cycle.It is inconsistency with economic growth in short time but consistency in long time.Variations of economic stability are much higher.The results of SVAR model indicate that the adjustment of economic system,industrial structure and macroeconomic policy will promote economic growth but reduce stability in short time.Technology upgrades is important to stability and growth.The increase of export,FDI and the improvement of terms of trade will enhance stability in short time.Economic stability and growth needs to be change to rely on the inner adjustment to increasing the efficiency and the connotation.%从充分就业、物价稳定、经济发展及国际收支平衡四个基本点出发，利用熵值法对1978年至今的中国经济系统稳定性进行定量考察，并将其与宏观经济增长率进行比较分析。研究发现，中国经济系统稳定性呈现明显的十年一轮的周期式波动，并与经济增长呈现短期非一致性和长期波动共变性，且变动幅度明显高于经济增长。本文构建了 SVAR 模型分析了中国宏观经济稳定与增长的冲击－响应机制。结果表明，经济体制改革、产业结构调整以及宏观经济政策在短期内会推动经济增长，但同时会降低宏观经济稳定性。技术进步对于经济增长和稳定的意义非常突出。国外需求的增加、贸易条件的改善以及国际资本流动的增加，短期内有助于维持宏观经济稳定性。中国宏观经济的稳定和增长主要依赖于出口导向型发展战略，但未来的发展和转型还是要依靠内部调整，特别是要发挥科技进步的重要作用，提高经济发展的内涵和效率。