经济增长、财政压力与地方政府土地城镇化偏好--基于Turnbull模型的理论分析与实证研究

摘要

Rapid land urbanization is a major problem facing the development of China’s urbanization,this paper studies the effects of economic growth and fiscal pressures on Land urbanization preferences of local government on the bases of Turnbull model.Model analysis shows that economic growth and fiscal pressures which caused by officials promoted and tax reform can lead to accelerated land urbanization.An Empirical Study using provincial panel data of China shows that the motivation of local government ’s pursuit of economic growth and fiscal pressures has a positive effect on land urbanization,and there are regional differences in the impact of fiscal pressure on land urbanization of local government. Research on the impact of land urbanization to the city’s industrial structure shows that higher land prices which caused by the land urbanization is not conducive to the development of urban industries and services.%土地城镇化过快是中国城镇化发展面临的主要问题，文章以Turnbull模型为基础研究了经济增长和财政压力对地方政府土地镇化偏好行为的影响。分析表明：官员晋升激励与分税制导致的经济增长与财政压力能够加速土地城镇化进程。利用中国省际面板数据的实证研究表明，地方政府追求经济增长的动机和财政压力对土地城镇化具有正向效应，并且财政压力对地方政府土地城镇化的影响存在跨地区差异。研究土地城镇化对城市产业结构的影响，得出了土地城镇化引起的高地价不利于城市工业和服务业的发展。