广西地区大气水汽转换系数的K值模型

摘要

According to the 2008-2012 sounding data of 20 radiosonde stations at the low-latitude of China,this paper analyzed the relationship between the K value and location,built coefficient K value model without meteorological data in Guangxi region.By comparing the accuracy and applicability of different models,the impact on prediction accuracy is analyzed by gradually increased samples year by year,and better ways of modeling is found for the K value model in Guangxi.The results show that:(1) Emardson model has the same inner precision and outer precision as the elevation model.Emardson is in good agreement with the integral method in calculating the K value.Emardson model' s overall precision of inner coincidence MSE is 0.002 1,outer precision MSE is 0.001 8.(2) Without elevation factor,Emardson model has stronger applicability than the elevation model.(3) It is not guaranteed to improve the prediction accuracy of the model by increasing the number of samples each year.With recent two years data,the value of K of the third year can be better predicted.%利用中国低纬度地区20个无线电探空站2008-2012年探空资料,分析大气水汽转换系数K值与地理位置间的关系,建立广西地区不需气象资料的K值模型.比较不同模型的精度、适用性,分析逐年增加样本数对预测精度的影响,探索如何更好地建立广西地区K值模型.结果表明:(1)在广西地区,Emardson模型总体的内、外符合精度与高程模型相当,Emardson模型与积分模型计算K值符合较好,总体内符合均方误差为0.002 1,外符合均方误差为0.001 8;(2)与高程模型相比,无需考虑高程因子的Emardson模型在广西地区适用性更强;(3)通过逐年增加样本数进行建模不能保证提高模型的预测精度,用最近的两年数据建模能够更好地预测第3年的K值.