基于TOPMODEL模型漓江流域洪水预报方案构建与应用

摘要

Aiming at the serious flood disasters in the upper reaches of Lijiang river basin, the river basin is divided into 11 sub basins according to the characteristics of water system and rain station.Sub watershed topography index and isochrones are extracted by DEM to construct a flood forecasting scheme for the upstream of Lijiang river basin based on the TOPMODEL model.The simulation results of 32 year flood (from 2008 to 2014) analysis shows that the calibration and verification period of flood forecasting qualified rate is more than 80%, and the average uncertainty coefficient is larger than 0.81, which achieves the prediction accuracy of B.%针对漓江流域上游洪水灾害严重,根据水系特征、雨量站网等情况将流域划分为11个子流域,通过DEM提取了各子流域地形指数与等流时线,构建了漓江流域上游的TOPMODEL模型洪水预报方案.通过2008年~2014年32场洪水的模拟计算,结果分析表明:率定期和验证期洪水预报合格率均大于80%、平均确定性系数大于0.81,达到乙级预报精度.