瀑布沟水电站移民新城变形监测与预测分析

摘要

根据瀑布沟水电站移民场地GPS边坡自动化变形监测系统获得的高边坡变形量时间序列的非线性性质,基于相空间重构理论和最邻近点法预测及其加权预测模式,提出了基于加权模式的多相型综合预测方法；并将该方法应用于瀑布沟水电站移民安置场地GPS监测点边坡变形预测中.从而将移民新城的变形监测与变形量的预测分析相结合,对瀑布沟水电站移民新城的稳定性进行实时监测与预测.实例研究表明:监测系统提供的移民场地变形监测的精度可达到毫米级；多相型综合预测方法具有较高的预测精度和可靠性.从而为边坡的变形预测提供了一种实用有效的方法.%According to the nonlinear method of the high slope displacement time series which provided by GPS automated deformation monitoring system, the prediction method of the multi phase space was introduced. It was based on the theory of the phase space reconstruction and the mode of adjacent equidistant and weighted adjacent equidistant. The method was applied to the Pubugou hydropower resettlement and predicted deformation by using GPS monitoring points. The accuracy provided by the GPS deformation monitoring system could reach to the level of millimeter. It was showed that the method of multi phase integrated method had high prediction accuracy and it was provided an effective way for the slope deformation forecasting.