劳动力、人口和中国出口导向的增长模式

摘要

本文通过数据证明,中国当前的出口导向增长模式是由中国当前人口特征和低城市化水平所决定的必然选择.低人口抚养比和低城市化率共同造成大量的劳动力供给和工资收入缓慢增长,这些又进一步导致了资本的快速积累和制造业的飞速发展.然而这两种因素也决定了较小的国内市场,因此市场出清的唯一途径就是出口.根据人口转型和城市化发展步伐来看,中国的出口导向型模式还将持续至2025年左右.%In this paper the authors argue that the export-oriented growth model is an unavoidable choice for Chi-na given its demographics and low level of urbanization. Low dependency ratio and low urbanization rate jointly determine a large amount of supply of labor and a slow growth of labor income, which in turn leads to fast accu-mulation of capital and the growth of the manufacturing sector. However, the two factors also determine a rela-tively small domestic market, and the only way to clear the market is to export. Judging by the pace of China's demographic transition and urbanization, the paper expects that China's export-oriented model will continue be-tween now and 2025.