首页> 中文期刊>金融发展研究 >“10+3”框架下东亚区域货币合作可行性分析与战略选择--基于经济冲击对称性视角

“10+3”框架下东亚区域货币合作可行性分析与战略选择--基于经济冲击对称性视角

     

摘要

东亚各国目前在货币领域的合作严重滞后于贸易合作,2008年全球金融危机的爆发使东亚货币合作面临着前所未有的挑战。根据传统的OCA标准,目前东亚各国内部经济条件差异较大,而且这种差异有逐步扩大的趋势,因此进行深层次货币合作的成本较高。基于经济冲击对称性的实证分析进一步表明,中日韩三国货币冲击的对称性较高,但是在供给冲击和需求冲击方面存在非对称性,而且这种非对称性在短期更为明显。与日韩相比,中国与东盟之间经济冲击的对称程度相对较高,具备一定的合作优势。因此中国应以贸易合作为基础,加强同东亚主要经济体的经贸往来,共同引领东亚货币合作向更高层次迈进。%The cooperation in the monetary field among East Asian countries currently lags behind the cooperation in trade obviously. The East Asian monetary cooperation is facing unprecedented challenges especially after the global financial crisis which happened in 2008. According to the traditional standard of OCA,the economic conditions within the East Asian countries are quite different, and the differences are gradually expanding,which causes the rise in cost of deeper monetary cooperation. Further empirical analysis on the symmetry of economic shocks shows that the mone-tary shocks among China,Japan and South Korea is highly symmetric. But supply shocks and demand shocks show asymmetry,and this asymmetry is more obviously high in the short term. Compared with Japan and South Korea,the symmetry between China and ASEAN is relatively high,which has a certain advantage. We suggest that China should reinforce the economic and trade contacts with major East Asian economies and lead the monetary cooperation among East Asian countries to march towards a higher level.

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