集合信托对银行存款的影响分析--基于突破存款利率上限管制的视角

摘要

In recent years, China’s trust industry has the common rigid payment problem and a relatively high yield compared with that of bank deposit, which has catalyzed the financial disintermediation, promoted the process of financial institutions’ breaking the upper limit of deposit interest rate and interest rates liberalization, and brought more complicated factors to the supervision on the financial market. In order to make a quantitative research on the im-pact that currently popular assembled trusts impose on bank deposit, the paper collects the relative quarterly data from 2009 to 2013 and makes an empirical analysis based on a variety of econometric methods. As the results suggest, there is a long-term co-integration relationship between time deposit and excess return rate of assembled trusts which is fitly the Granger reason for the financial disintermediation. Based on the main problems in the current financial market re-flected in the phenomenon above,the paper puts forward corresponding suggestions.%近年来，我国信托业普遍存在的“刚性兑付”问题与其高于银行存款的收益率对金融脱媒产生了催化作用，也推动了金融机构资金成本突破存款利率上限管制和利率市场化进程，给金融市场监管带来了更多复杂因素。为了定量研究当前市场上热门的集合信托对银行存款的影响，本文选取2009-2013年各季度相关数据，利用多种计量方法进行实证分析。结果表明，集合信托相对定期存款的超额收益率与定期存款之间存在着长期协整关系，而且构成存款脱媒的格兰杰原因。针对这一现象所反映的当前金融市场的主要问题，本文提出了若干对策建议。