基于多源信息的异总体可靠性试验鉴定方法探讨

摘要

Reliability test evaluation is a statistical decision method,which researches on whether product reliability satisfies the development requirement based on test data.The statistical decision results are the theoretical foundation to determine whether product can be released to use or not.The practical problems of reliability test evaluation have to face under new period condition are small sam-ple size,multi-source information and changing population.We reviews and summarizes the existing methods of reliability test evaluation.Finally,we make analysis for the key technology involving reli-ability test evaluation under changing population,sequential test under reliability growth and prior in-formation fusion.%依靠性试验鉴定是研究检验产品性能指标是否满足研制要求的一种统计决策方法。统计分析决策的结论可以作为产品能否定型并批量生产的理论依据。首先对新时期武器装备可靠性试验鉴定面临的试验样本量少、多源信息，变动总体等问题进行剖析，然后对可靠性试验鉴定方法的研究现状进行梳理和归纳。最后，对当前武器装备可靠性试验鉴定理论中的变动统计下的可靠性试验鉴定、可靠性增长下的序贯检验、验前信息融合等关键技术的发展与应用问题进行了探析。