基于干系人知识共享的多组织项目风险的仿真

摘要

多组织项目的风险管理涉及众多干系人的参与，从知识管理角度分析，项目风险管理过程是不同项目干系人在信任的基础上进行相互协作、共享风险知识以实现风险控制的持续过程。基于社会网络理论，利用智能体仿真技术研究在不同信任条件和活动自由度下，干系人风险知识的交互对项目风险绩效的影响。研究结果表明，合理的信任条件以及适当的干系人活动自由度能降低项目整个生命周期内的风险影响，提高项目风险绩效，并提出了相应的项目风险管理建议。%Many stakeholders are involved in risk management in a multi-organizational project. From the perspective of knowledge management,project risk management process is regarded as activities of different stakeholders’ mutual collaboration and knowledge sharing in order to achieve sustained risk control. Based on social network theory,Agent-based modeling and simulation (ABMS)is applied to study the impact of interactive stakeholders’ risk knowledge on project risk performance under different conditions and trust activities(participation)degrees of freedom. The results show that reasonable trust conditions,and appropriate stakeholder activities(participation)degrees of freedom help reduce risks throughout the project life cycle,and improve the performance of project risk as well. At last,some project risk management recommendations are suggested.