基于贝叶斯网络的高层住宅纠偏加固风险评估

摘要

Aiming buildings’ inclination-control and strengthening engineering projects, which use the construction plan that contains rectify the deviation by soil extraction and reinforce foundation by slurry,a risk evaluation method is put forward based on Bayesian networks,which contain the correction of buildings’ inclination and the reinforcement of the foundation. Taking the output events of Event tree as the intermediate events of accident tree,a fault tree is constructed. Then, the accident tree is converted into the Bayesian network. Based on experts’ experience and a questionnaire survey, the parameters in the Bayesian networks is determined and a risk evaluation is made. Results show that key risk factors can be determined and help us control the risk. The method is proved to be feasible and be helpful for policymaking.%针对采用掏土迫降、地基基础注浆加固施工方案的房屋纠偏加固工程，提出基于贝叶斯网络的高层住宅纠偏加固风险评估。将事件树输出的事件序列作为事故树的中间事件，构造出纠偏加固工程的事故树，将构建的事故树转化为贝叶斯网络，依据专家经验及问卷调查的数据确定贝叶斯网络中的参数，并以此为基础对项目进行风险评价，确定影响纠偏加固的关键风险因素并进行风险控制。应用该方法对房屋纠偏加固进行风险评价，验证该方法切实可行，为决策者提供了理论依据。