广州地铁车辆段合同变更行为博弈及策略分析

摘要

Considering the current situation of high frequency and large cost of contract change in Guangzhou metro depot construction project,static and dynamic analysis based on game theory is applied to build a game model between clients and contractors. The model analysis shows that the power of punishment,rent-seeking cost,construction of party authority and company reputation loss are the factors influencing the contract change. Therefore,the Guangzhou Metro Corporation is given four suggestions:to establish and strengthen supervision mechanism and improve the contract management process;to strengthen the construction of enterprise integrity library and appropriately do credit rating on the contractors; to establish an effective incentive and constraint mechanism for contract change;to establish the third party evaluation system. It is believed that these measures can administer the amount of project contract change for Guangzhou metro vehicles to a certain extent and improve its level of contract management.%鉴于广州地铁车辆段建设过程中出现变更数量多、金额大的状况，分别应用静态和动态的博弈论方法，构建广州地铁主业方与承包商的分析模型，发现承包工程变更的影响因素有惩罚力度、寻租成本、建设方的职权和公司名誉损失等。为此，建议广州地铁总公司加强监督机制建立，完善合同管理流程；加强企业诚信库的建设，对承包商进行适当诚信评级；建立有效的合同变更激励和约束机制；建立第三方评估制度等。相信这些措施可以在一定程度上降低广州地铁车辆段工程合同变更的数量，提高合同管理水平。