基于居民理性购房意愿的住房需求结构分析——来自江苏省小城市的实证

摘要

It is prerequisite to clearly understand the residents' housing demand structure to make scientific supply policies in housing market. Since diversities are burgeoning in housing market in different cities,adopting the corresponding policies becomes more important for housing market regulation. To compensate the insufficient focus on housing market in small cities,this study combines the residents' willingness to pay a house and the hierarchy of housing demands. Ordered logit model is employed to describe the psychological activity of property buyers,followed by a multinomial logit model to calculate the rational structure of housing demand. An empirical study in small cities in Jiangsu province is demonstrated. The outcomes are expected to contribute to the decision making of housing supply strategies for local governments.%洞察居民的住房需求结构是科学制定住房市场供给政策的前提.不同城市住房市场差异化现象日趋显著,"因城施策"成为住房市场调控的主导原则.为弥补当前对小城市住房市场关注度的不足,将居民理性购房意愿与住房需求类别分析相结合,采用排序多元Logit模型刻画居民的购房心理,基于此应用多类别Logit模型推测合理的住房市场需求结构,并以江苏省小城市作为实证对象.实证结果可为相关决策部门合理制定住房供给策略提供科学依据.