气候变化对长江中下游地区采暖制冷负荷需求影响分析

摘要

天气条件是影响用电需求的重要因素,对居民和商业用户的采暖、制冷负荷需求具有突出影响.气候模式在长时间尺度上的变化可能会明显改变冬季和夏季的气温分布,引起采暖和制冷用电需求的变化,影响电网的调度运行.利用近40年长江中下游地区典型城市气象观测数据,结合制冷日、采暖日、制冷度日和采暖度日等指标,评价了长时间尺度上气候变化对采暖和制冷负荷需求的影响.研究表明,因夏季制冷日和制冷度日增长明显,制冷负荷的增长将对电网规划和调度运行产生突出影响;冬季采暖用电需求可能伴随采暖日和采暖度日而在整体上呈下降趋势,但间或出现的冬季极寒现象,对电网影响更为突出.%Weather has notable impact on heating and cooling load demand of residential and com-mercial users.Climate change over long time span could alter temperature distribution,and change the heating and cooling electricity demand in the winter and summer,and then effect the dispatching operation in power grids.40-year meteorological data in cities of the middle and low-er reaches of the Yangtze River were investigated in this paper.The Heating Day (HD),Cooling Day (CD),Heating Degree Day (HDD),and Cooling Degree Day (CDD)were calculated to eval-uate the impact on heating and cooling load demand of climate change over long time span.Since there are obvious escalation in both CD and CDD,the growth in cooling load could produce signif-icant influence on power network planning and dispatching operating.The decline in HD and HDD could result in heating electricity demand decreased.However,the extreme cold day could negative impact power system even more.