Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Price-Earnings Ratio and the Development of the Capital Markets

摘要

On the one hand,the P/E ratio measures growth opportunity,bubble level,and investment value of a company.On the other hand,the calculation of P/E is rather simple and convenient,and therefore considerably popular.This article selects the monthly data for five years from 2012 to 2017,of all Shanghai A shares to conduct an empirical analysis.Based on the Gordon model,macroeconomic variables,time variable,technical indicators,and other variables are introduced to reflect the actual price-earnings ratio.This article innovatively introduces the OBV energy wave indicator in empirical research to measure the influence of market heat and investor sentiment on the price-earnings ratio.This paper regresses both on the whole data and on the data grouped according to the average earnings per share,and concludes that P/E estimated by Gordon model,company size,and time factor have a considerable degree of explanation for the actual price-earnings ratio,and the innovative introduction of OBV energy wave indicator also shows significant correlation and explanation.