长江河口沿海区域温带风暴潮预报模式的建立与应用

摘要

长江口地区既受到台风风暴潮影响,又受到温带风暴潮影响,而长江口地区温带风暴潮研究较少.因此,本文利用新一代中尺度大气模式——WRF,结合有限元二维水动力模型——ADCIRC,并耦合近海浅水风浪数值模型——SWAN,建立了一个长江口及邻近区域温带风暴潮预报模型.利用实测资料对温带风暴潮模型进行率定和后报检验,相对误差控制在10％之内.利用该模型,对温带风暴潮增水的特征及机制进行讨论分析,对比了风应力和气压对增水的贡献,并探讨了增减水对风向的响应,得到了一些有意义的结果.%The Changjiang estuary (CE) is influenced by tropical storm surges in summer,and extratropical storm surges in winter.However,there has been limited research on the latter and numerical hindcast/forecast model.Therefore,a forecasting model for extratropical storm surges is set up for the CE and adjacent region using mesoscale weather model WRF,hydrodynamic model ADCIRC and coupled with nearshore wave model SWAN.The observed data of wind and water levels were used to make extensive model calibration,especially the hindcast validation,and the overall average relative error is less than 10％,which indicates excellent model precision and reliability.Based on this hindcast/forecast model,the major characteristics and mechanism of winter extratropical storm surges around the CE has been discussed and analyzed.And the contribution of wind stress and air pressure on the surge has been quantitatively revealed.The surges response to the wind direction is also discussed.