基于内外动力耦合成因理论的新疆地质灾害气象预警显式统计模型

摘要

地质灾害气象预警是有效减轻地质灾害造成损失的重要手段,其核心是研究气象条件与地质灾害危险性的时空关系,即地质灾害气象预警模型.新疆地质构造复杂,内外动力作用强烈,是中国地质灾害发育严重的地区之一.基于地质灾害的地球内外动力耦合作用成因理论,建立了新疆地质灾害气象预警区划;利用地理信息系统(GIS)平台,优选内外动力地质作用指标,依据专家经验,确定各类要素权重,计算地质环境指标值,构建了基于内外动力耦合成因理论的新疆地质灾害气象预警乘积范式的显式统计模型;在此基础上,进行历史地质灾害点校验,获得了与实际地质灾害发生情况较为一致的地质灾害气象预警结果.%Meterological early-warning is the key issue that arises during the preventions of geological hazards.A model of meterological early-warning refers to the study of space-time relationships between meterological conditions and risks of geological hazards, which is the core of early-warning.There are serious geological hazards in Xinjiang, which is taken as the example for the model study.Due to its own geological and geomorphological conditions, the geological hazards are controlled by strong endogenic and exogenic coupling effects.Early-warning of geological hazards in Xinjiang is divided into several zones based on the genesis theory of endogenic and exogenic coupling.A explicit statistic model with selected optimum indexes is completed based on geographic information system (GIS).In the model, the weights of early-warning indexes of geological hazards are determined according to the experts` experience, and the values of geological environment indexes are calculated.Then, the model is consistently verified by historical geological hazards, namely the results of early-warning are the same.