基于模糊层次分析法的隧道钻爆法施工风险评估

摘要

Tunnel construction using the drilling-blasting method may be affected by many risk factors.In order to make an objective assessment on such risks,FAHP (fuzzy analytical hierarchy process) is used as a solution to the difficulty in quantizing assessment indexes,with considering uncertainties and fuzziness that exist in tunnel construction when the drilling-blasting method is used.By indentifying the causes of the risks of the drilling-blasting tunnel construction,a risk assessment index system that contains 11 secondary indexes is established from three aspects: construction risk,inherent risk and management risk.Both subjective and objective factors are taken into the system,in which FAHP is used to determine the relative weight of each index as well as to build a trapezoidal membership function,which can calculate the membership degree of risk index to risk level.By combining the project case of flood draining tunnel in Quanshuigou tailing pond,computing the weight vector of assessment criteria and analyzing the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation result,an accurate and proper construction risk grade of tunnel drilling and blasting method is made about the project.Moreover,the construction method is verified to be rational and feasible.%影响隧道钻爆法施工的风险因素比较多,为了能够对其风险程度作出较为客观的评价,针对当前隧道钻爆法施工风险因素仍存在许多不确定性与模糊性的特点,提出模糊层次分析方法以解决评价指标难以量化问题.通过对隧道钻爆法施工风险指标产生原因比较识别,主要从施工风险、固有风险、管理风险三个方面构建风险评价指标体系,包括11个二级评价指标.兼顾主客观因素,其中采用层次分析法确定各评价指标相对权重并构建梯形隶属函数,计算风险指标对各等级风险水平的隶属度.结合泉水沟尾矿库排洪隧道工程实例,通过计算评价指标权重向量和分析模糊综合评判结果,给出了该工程较为准确、合理的隧道钻爆法施工风险等级,验证了所建方法的合理性与可行性.