灰色预测模型在生态系统健康评价指标体系中的应用

摘要

深圳福田红树林湿地是我国南方重要湿地,其生态问题日益突出.通过计算可以得出福田红树林湿地正处于亚健康状态.利用灰色预测模型,对细小平裂藻细胞密度进行预测,从而侧面得出红树林生态系统富营养化趋势.结合生态系统健康预警对其给出一些建议与保护.%Shenzhen Futian mangrove wetland is an important wetland in Southern China,and its ecological problems become more and more serious.By means of calculation,we can know that the mangrove wetland is in a subhealth status.By using the grey prediction model,we predict the cell density of Merismopedia tenuissima,obtain the trend of eutrophication of mangrove ecosystem so as to figure out mangrove ecosystem eutrophication trend,and finally propose some suggestions and protection measures according to the ecosystem health warning.