基于改进灰色模型的能源消费预测研究

摘要

Based on the premise of the first-order cumulated generating series with the character of exponential growth,the background value of grey model is improved by the predictor-correcting technique to enhance the prediction precision of grey model.The numerical experimental results show that the precision and adaptability of the grey model are improved effectively.Finally,energy demand is predicted up to 2015 using the improved model coupling with the equal dimension rolling mechanism.The forecasting result indicates that energy demand will reach up to 3.19 billion tons of coal equivalent（BTCE） in 2010 and 3.63 BTCE in 2015,respectively,and it will present the huge challenge in terms of the safety of energy supply.%为提高灰色模型的预测精度,在一次累加生成序列呈指数增长趋势的前提下,利用预估-校正技术对灰色模型的背景值进行了改进.数值实验表明,改进模型有效地改善了模型的预测精度,并拓展了模型的适用范围.最后,结合等维递补技术,利用提出的改进模型,对到2015年中国能源消费需求进行了预测.预测结果表明,到2010年和2015年,中国能源需求总量将高达31.9和36.3亿吨标准煤,这将为中国能源供应安全带来巨大挑战.