基于贝叶斯的航空备件需求研究与应用

摘要

鉴于目前航空备件需求计算应用泊松公式存在计算结果误差较大的问题,依据历史故障数据并应用广义更新过程建立反映历史故障数据以及维修能力的可靠性分布模型,同时针对目前历史故障数据主要是小样本事件,应用贝叶斯方法并采用切片采样法对可靠性分布模型进行参数估计.最后通过实例进行分析,结果表明实际故障次数和实际故障情况较为吻合,增大了模型的应用范围.%There are much more deviations in the calculation of the aero-spares demand by the Poisson formula in recently decades, so we establish the reliability distribution model to reflect the historical failure data and the maintenance capabilities with the application of the generalized renewal process. At the same time for the historical fault data for the current principal is a small sample of events. Bayesian method and slice sampling method were applied to estimate the parameter of the reliability distribution. Finally, with the example analysis, the results show that the number of actual faults and actual failures of the more consistent,increasing the application of this model.