科技研发投入政策模拟分析：基于中国科技CGE模型

摘要

Based on the description of the science and technology input mechanism and according to China’s R&D investment status and the latest input-output table,the paper compiles a social accounting matrix and constructed China’s Technology Computable General Equilibrium (CNT-CGE)model and then simulates two policies:the adjustment of government expenditure structure;reform and research funding system.The result shows that the adjustment of the structure of government expenditure policy could make the real GDP growth rate increase and GDP deflator also decreased with the declining of the government consumption,and the absolute decline is slightly less than the real GDP growth;the policy of adjusting technology R&D expenditure structure can effectively increase China’s GDP growth rate,significantly reduce the price level,and improve China’s overall level of social welfare.%从经济系统论角度，基于最新投入产出表和我国科技研发投入情况，编制中国科技社会核算矩阵，构建中国科技研发可计算一般均衡（CNT-CGE）模型，并模拟分析调整政府支出结构和科研经费制度改革两项科技研发投入政策。结果显示：调整政府支出结构政策可以使得实际GDP 增长率随着政府消费降幅的增加而增加，GDP 平减指数则随着政府消费降幅的增加而减少，其绝对降幅略小于实际 GDP 增幅；科研经费制度改革政策可以有效地提高我国 GDP 增长率，显著地降低物价水平，提升社会整体福利水平。