基于多层递阶和回归分析的单一水位流量关系曲线高水延长方法

摘要

测站的水位流量关系由于受到多种因素的影响,没有固定的曲线线型,使得水位流量关系曲线的延长变得较为困难.多层递阶方法将预测系统视为动态系统,具有跟踪系统时变参数的特性,但没能考虑高相关影响因子的重要性.回归分析考虑到了高相关影响因子的重要性,但由于采用定常参数建模,不能反映动态系统时变参数的特性.将多层递阶方法和回归分析方法结合起来,用于单一水位流量关系曲线的高水延长.方法克服了传统的单一水位流量关系曲线高水延长时线型的需要选择、精度难以控制、效率低和不易程序化等缺点,为单一水位流量关系曲线的高水延长提供了一种新途径.%As a result of many factors, a single stage-discharge relationship in stations does not have any curve types, which makes it more difficult to extend the stage-discharge relationship curve. Multi-level recursive method takes forecasting system as a dynamic system, with time-varying characteristics of the parameters in the tracking system, but failing to consider the impact of high relevance factor. Regression analysis, taking into account the relevant factors of high importance, but due to model parameters, the system can not reflect the dynamic parameters of time-varying characteristics. Here, the multi-level recursive method and regression analysis were used together for high water line extension of single stage-discharge relationship. This way overcome the shortcomings of difficult control of selecting accuracy, lower effectiveness, and difficult programming.