0707号强热带风暴“帕布”路径与强度异常变化成因分析

摘要

The severe tropical storm Pabuk(0707)has the characteristics of complex track, varied intensity and strong storm rainfall. The analysis of the observed meteorological data showed that key reasons of Pabuk complex path are the weak circulation and mutual rotation with Wutip(0708); Besides influence of the Wutip, variation of Pabuk intensity is related to effect of convergence zone and baroclinic structure of high-low level circulation center; Convergence zone in the South China Sea plays big role in the storm rainfall.%0707号强热带风暴“帕布”具有路径复杂、强度多变、暴雨超强的异常特点,本文通过对常规气象观测资料分析发现:处于弱环境气流场以及与0708号热带风暴“蝴蝶”的互旋运动是造成“帕布”路径复杂的主要原因,而其强度的变化除受到“蝴蝶”的影响之外,还与辐合带的作用和其高低层环流中心结构出现明显的倾斜有关,而南海辐合带对其产生超强暴雨有突出的贡献.