基于主成分分析和因子分析的宁夏水资源承载力研究

摘要

为了探求宁夏水资源承载力状况,利用主成分分析法和因子分析法,在分析宁夏2004～2014年水资源承载力状况的基础上,对宁夏5市2013年水资源承载力分水资源支持力、社会经济技术水平和社会生活水平3个方面进行综合考虑,得到宁夏5市的水资源利用状况指数和分级标准.具体得到以下几个结论:(1)2004～2014年间,宁夏水资源承载力仅在2005～2006年有所波动,其余年份两种方法结果一致,11年间保持稳定上升;(2)对于宁夏5市2013年水资源承载力状况,主成分分析结果由大到小排序为吴忠市、银川市、石嘴山市、固原市和中卫市,因子分析结果由大到小排序为吴忠市、银川市、固原市、石嘴山市和中卫市;(3)建立宁夏5市水资源承载力状况分级阈值,主成分分析下吴忠市和银川市的水资源利用状况高,石嘴山市的水资源利用状况中等,固原市和中卫市的水资源利用状况低;因子分析下吴忠市和银川市的水资源利用状况高,其余3市水资源利用状况都较低.%In order to explore the situation of water resources carrying capacity in Ningxia,this paper analyzed the water resources carrying capacity in Ningxia during 2004-2014 by using the principal component analysis and factor analysis,then took into account comprehensively including water-support-capacity,soci-economic technology and soci-living level of five cities in Ningxia,and got water resources utilization index and classification criteria in different areas.The results show as follows:(1) The consequence of water resources carrying capacity is only fluctuated from 2005 to 2006 during 2004-2014,and the other years were consistent under the two methods,they both had steadily increased in the past 11years.(2) For the water resources carrying capacity of five cities in Ningxia in 2013,the descending order of principal component analysis are Wuzhong,Yinchuan,Shizuishan,Guyuan and Zhongwei;the descending order of factor analysis are Zhongwei,Yinchuan,Guyuan,Shizuishan and Zhongwei.(3) The threshold value of classification of water resources carrying capacity in Ningxia was established.As the result of principal component analysis,the higher grades of water resource exploiting are Wuzhong and Yinchuan,the medium grades of water resource exploiting is Shizuishan,and the lower grades of water resource exploiting are Guyuan and Zhongwei.As the result of factor analysis,the higher grades of water resource exploiting are Wuzhong and Yinchuan,and rest of three regions all have lower grades.