模式初值敏感性对中期数值天气预报的影响

摘要

The National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model version 3.0 is used for the hindcast of 30 cases in January of 1982-2011 in order to make better understanding of the sensitivity of the medium-range numerical weather prediction (NWP) to initial conditions under quasi-steady foreign forcing.The ERA-interim reanalysis data and the National Center for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data are used as the initial conditions.The dependence of the 15-day numerical results on initial conditions is investigated by inter-comparison of model results with the disturbed reanalysis data.The results of deterministic prediction show a certain forecasting skill in the forecasts within 10-day period.The impact of initial condition decreases with the time integration,and the 15-day NWP shows dependency on the initial conditions,and the forecasting skill might improve significantly with the refinement of initial conditions.%为进一步研究准定常外源强迫条件下中期数值天气预报对初值的敏感性问题,采用ECMWF ERA-inter-im再分析资料及NCEP再分析资料作为模式初值,利用CAM3.0模式,对1982-2011年1月准定常短波辐射强迫情况下30个天气个例的15天预报结果进行分析,着重讨论预报结果对初值的依赖性,得出以下主要结论:模式确定性预报试验中,在10天内预报技巧显著,初值影响随预报时间延长而降低,10天以上仍有一定预报技巧.初值对15天以内的数值天气预报都有一定的影响,优良初值可提高预报质量.