以绵阳市为例，在城市化水平测定的综合指标体系下，运用绵阳市近30年（1985-2012年）的统计资料，采用主成分分析方法，研究城市化进程对耕地面积的影响并分析出耕地变化的原因。研究结果表明：绵阳市城市化进程中，其耕地面积总体趋势在递减，人均耕地面积也呈递减的趋势。主要影响因素是经济发展、城市建成区面积和人口因素。解决办法：可以通过转变经济发展方式、调整产业结构；提高城市建成区内部的空间利用效率；合理有效引导人口向城市转移等三个方面来缓解绵阳市在城市化进程中对耕地面积减少的趋势。%The current process of china's urbanization is in a rapid period of growth. The expansion of urban land has become the important factor of cultivated area reduction. In this paper the author takes Mianyang with nearly thirty year's statistics(1985-2012)as an example,under the comprehensive in-dex system of the determination of urbanization and through the principal component analysis,to analyze the factors of the cultivated area's changes. The results of the study show that:during the process of ur-banization,Mianyang cultivated area has decreased from1985 to 2012,and so has the average cultivated area. The main factors of the changes of Mianyang's cultivated area are the development of economy,the construction area of urban and the population factors. On the basis of these factors,the trend of farmland area decreased in Mianyang City can be alleviated in the process of urbanization in three aspects:the transformation of economic development mode,the adjustment of the industrial structure,the improve-ment of the efficiency of the inside space in the built-up areas and the reasonable and effective guidance of the population movement to urban areas.
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