欧美自贸区建立后中美、中欧贸易结构比较分析

摘要

运用全球贸易分析模型（GTAP模型）比较分析欧美自贸区建立后中美、中欧贸易结构的变化情况，结果表明：美欧出口到中国的商品将更加偏向高技术、高附加值，这将限制中国的自主创新能力，长期下去会造成一定程度的技术依赖；另外，美欧自中国的进口将仍然以劳动密集型产品为主，这类产品的特点是消耗高、附加值低，甚至有污染。同时，中国部分传统出口优势产业将受到很大的冲击，不利于国内就业。因此，中国必须走技术创新之路，提高国内产品的技术含量，走环境保护之路，促进国内经济的可持续发展，主动推动与美欧的经济合作。%This paper analyzes the trade structure changes of Sino-US and Sino-EU after the establishment of EU-US Free Trade Area using GTAP model.The results conclude that US and EU exports to China will be more products with high technology and high value -added,which will limit China′s ability of independent innovation and cause dependence on technology.In addition,US and EU imports from China will be still mainly labor-inten-sive products which are characterized by high consumption,low added value,even polluted.At the same time,it will have a big impact on some of China′s traditional advantage export industry,which is not conducive to the na-tional employment.Therefore,China must take the path of technological innovation and improve the technical con-tent of domestic products.It must go the way of environmental protection and promote the sustainable development of domestic economy.It can take the initiative to promote economic cooperation with the US and EU.