贵州省规划铁路网滑坡危险性评估

摘要

基于地理信息系统(GIS)平台,结合贵州省中长期铁路网规划以及基于逻辑回归模型编制的贵州省滑坡易发性区划图,提出区域铁路网滑坡危险性评估的3项指标:沿线区域滑坡易发性、历史滑坡对线路的影响度以及线路设计速度,并进行相应的指标量化工作.基于可拓学理论,将铁路滑坡危险性划分为4个级别,建立铁路滑坡危险性综合评价的物元模型,完成研究区域内17段铁路的滑坡危险性评估.研究结果表明:在省级尺度上,贵州省中长期规划铁路网中,成都-贵阳铁路等4段铁路属于极高危险,长沙-昆明铁路等4段铁路属于高危险,贵阳-广州铁路等5段铁路属于中危险；铜仁-玉屏城际铁路等4段铁路属于低危险.评价结果可用于辅助贵州省铁路网的规划、建设和运营养护工作.%Based on medium and long-term railway network plan and a landslide susceptibility map which was derived from logistic regression model, three factors, namely the landslide susceptibility index, the influence degree of historical landslide events around to a railway line, as well as design speed were proposed and quantified for a GIS-based landslide risk assessment for regional planning railway network. Based on the extenics theory, the landslide risk of railway was divided into four levels, and a matter-element model was built to assess the risk level for the total 17 sections of railway. The results show that in Guizhou Province, four sections of railway such as Chengdu-Guiyang railway are at very high risk, four sections such as Changsha-Kunming railway are at high risk, five sections such as Guizhou-Guangzhou are at medium risk and four sections such as Tongren-Yuping are at low risk. The assessment result provides references for railway planning, construction and maintenance in Guizhou Province.