针对爆破地震效应评价中诸多因素不确定性问题,应用距离判别分析理论,选用爆破振动幅值、主频率、主频率持续时间、灰缝强度、砖墙面积率、房屋高度、屋盖形式、圈梁构造柱、施工质量、场地条件共10个影响因素作为判别因子,建立露天采矿爆破振动对民房危害预测的距离判别分析模型(DDA);以36组爆破振动实测数据作为学习样本进行训练,建立相应线性判别函数并利用回代估计方法进行回检,用12组现场数据作为预测样本进行测试.研究结果表明:回检误判率为2.78%;距离判别分析模型预测结果与实际结果较吻合,预测精度高,为露天采矿爆破振动对民房危害程度的预测提供了一种新思路.%Due to the uncertain factors in blasting seismic effect of the control and evaluation, the distance discriminating analysis model for prediction of residential house's damage against blasting vibration of open pit mining was established based on the principles of Mahalanobis' distance discriminating analysis (DDA). Ten indexes, i.e., blasting vibration amplitude, dominant frequency, dominant frequency duration, gray joints intensity, the rate of brick walls, height of housing, roof forms, the structural column of circle beam, the quality of construction and site conditions, were used as blasting vibration prediction of residential house's damage discriminating factors. A DDA model was obtained through training 36 measured data of blasting vibration. The re-substitution method was introduced to verify the stability of DDA model and the DDA model was used to discriminate 12 new samples. The results show that the ratio of mis-discrimination is 2.78％, and the prediction results are identical with actual results. The DDA model has good classifying performance, high predicted accuracy and can be used in practical blast engineering.
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