近年来,关于城市复合系统的可持续发展研究一直以来是人文地理学研究的重要领域.但基于能值理论对城市可持续发展能力的定量研究多集中在某一年度或某不连续的几个年度,缺乏对某一地区的持续动态研究,使得研究具有很大偶然性和预见性[1].以2005年～2014年的威海市生态经济系统为研究对象,运用能值理论对其可持续发展能力进行定量分析.从系统能值流10 a的动态变化中发现:1)生态经济系统的能值总量、经济反馈输出能值、不可更新资源能值总体呈现快速增加的态势,可更新资源能值和经济反馈输入能值变化不大;2)环境负载率从2005年的1.21上升到2014年2.11,2008年达到十年中环境负载率的最大值2.18,总体呈现不断上升的趋势;3)ESI的数值在3.5～7.5之间波动,EISD的数值在1～3之间波动,两个指标在数值上总体波动较大,并且总体态势呈现下降的趋势.上述发现表明:1)威海市生态经济系统中的高品质的能值不断流出,虽然整个系统的能值总量在增加但是系统真正获得能值财富在相对减少;2)威海市在社会经济快速发展的同时自然生态系统正在承受着越来越大的环境压力,应该引起重视;3)威海市生态经济系统可持续发展能力一般并且在反复波动中呈现减弱的趋势.%In recent years,sustainable development of urban complex system has been an important research field of human geography.In this paper,the ecological economic system of Weihai city from 2005 to 2014 was studied,and the sustainable development capacity of the ecological economic system was quantitatively analyzed by using the theory of energy value.It is found from the dynamic change of value flow in ten years that:1) the energy amount,economic output feedback energy and nonrenewable resource value generally showed a rapid increase trend,while renewable resource value and economic value of feedback input changed little;2) environmental load rate from 1.21 in 2005 to 2.11 in 2014 and reach the maximum of 2.18 in 2008,presenting an overall rising trend;3) the value of ESI fluctuated between 3.5 to 7.5 and the EISD value fluctuated between 1 to 3.These two indicators exhibited overall downward fluctuation trend in the value.These findings indicate that:1) the ecological economic system of Weihai city in the high-quality energy is flowing out continuously.The total energy value of the whole system increased while wealth value that the system actually obtained relatively reduced;2) in the rapid social and economic development,ecological system of Weihai City is facing more and more environmental pressure,which should be paid attention to;(3) the sustainable development of ecological economic system in Weihai city is in general and tends to decrease in repeated fluctuations.
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