基于状态空间模型的中国粮食产量波动的影响因素研究

摘要

粮食丰歉直接影响居民消费与生活质量,而粮食生产受到播种面积、化肥、自然灾害等多种因素的影响.利用逐步回归方法研究发现,在影响粮食生产的10个因素中,播种面积、化肥施用量、自然灾害成灾面积 对其生产的影响最大.通过协整检验、误差修正模型分析发现这三种因素与粮食生产之间存在长期与短期关系.状态空间模型表明在不同时期播种面积、化肥施用量、自然灾害成灾面积对其生产的影响存在差异.%Harvest or poor of grain output influences the life quality of consumers directly. There are some influence factors of the grain output, such as the grain sown areas, chemical fertilizers, natural disasters, etc. By using stepwise regression method, among the 10 influence factors of grain output studied, sown areas, chemical fertilizers, and the grain sown areas affected by natural disasters are shown to be the first 3 influence factors. Long-term and short-term relationships between the grain output and the 3 factors are displayed by co-integration test and error correction model. It is shown by the state space model that different impacts of the three factors on grain production in different periods are existed.