BFAST--一种分析气候极端事件变化的新方法

摘要

为了分析北京气候变化对极端事件频次的影响，采用 Mann-Kendall 突变检验方法对北京站1952－2010年年平均温度数据进行突变分析，在不能成功地检测到北京年平均温度的突变情况时，引入 BFAST 方法处理月平均温度时间序列，这是由于月平均温度数据与年数据相比更加精细，灾害或极端事件发生的情况在月数据上有更加良好的反映，得到月平均温度的变化趋势和突变点后，进一步探究北京极端高温事件频次的变化。研究结果显示，BFAST 监测到的气候变化趋势和突变点与极端高温频次的变化有较好的一致性，它是一个判定气候变化情况和分析气候极端事件的有力工具。%To analyze the influence of climate change on the frequency of extreme events in Beijing,firstly, Mann-Kendall method is used to deal with annual average temperature data in 1952-2010 of Beijing station.Since abrupt change of the annual average temperature of Beijing was not successfully detected,BFAST is introduced to deal with the monthly average temperature time series,this is because monthly average data is more sophisticated compared with annual average data,diasaster or extreme events can be better reflected on monthly data.The article further explores the changes of the frequency of extreme high temperature events in Beijing after gaining the trend and abrupt change of monthly average data.The results show that the climate change trend and abrupt change which BFAST detected is consistent with the change of the frequency of extreme high temperature events.BFAST is a powerful tool to determine climate change and to analyze climate extremes.