基于改进灰关联度的 IOWGA 算子最优组合预测模型

摘要

通过定义改进灰关联度的计算式和引进诱导有序加权几何平均(IOWGA)算子，提出基于改进灰关联度的IOWGA算子组合预测模型，并定义了优性组合预测模型的概念。此组合预测模型是一种变权系数组合预测模型，可以克服传统的组合预测方法赋予不变的加权平均系数和以单一误差衡量预测精度的缺陷。最后给出实例说明新方法能有效地提高组合预测精度。%　　Based on improved grey incidence and induced ordered weighted geometric averaging (IO-WGA),an optimal combination forecasting model is proposed ,and the conception of superior combination forecasting is given.The model is a variable weight factors model which can overcome some deficiencies in weighting and using single error index as forecasting precision measure of traditional combination forecas -ting model.Finally,an example is illustrated to show that the new model can improve forecasting precision effectively.