应用中尺度气象模式（MM5）与区域多尺度空气质量模型（CMAQ）的耦合模式系统模拟研究了北京后奥运时期＂机动车尾号限行＂措施及拟在重污染气象条件下实施的＂机动车单双号限行＂、施工作业限制等应急措施对北京市空气质量的影响.结果显示,在无＂尾号限行＂措施实施的情况下,2008年10—12月份的PM10质量浓度将分别增加6.88、9.68和12.10μg/m3,增长率分别为6.81%、8.27%和7.85%.以2005年11月2日—6日和2007年12月25日—29日作为重污染事件的案例分析时段,应急措施可使2005年11月、2007年12月重污染时段内PM10质量浓度分别减少93.8、88.4μg/m3,降幅分别为21.56%和20.30%.在后奥运时期,临时、应急性的减排措施可在一定程度上改善大气环境质量,但措施实施将附带一定的社会效应和经济损失.从长远角度看,针对本地排放的重点控制以及区域排放的长效协同控制是改善北京大气环境质量的关键.%This study analyzes the impact of restriction measures on urban air quality during the post-Olympic times through simulation using an integrated MM5-CMAQ modeling approach under emission reduction measure-scenarios aimed at construction works and traffic activities.Results show that if daily vehicles are not restricted,the mean monthly increase ratios of PM10 concentration are 6.81%,8.27%,and 7.85% during October,November,and December in 2008,respectively;and the mean monthly concentration of PM10 increases by 6.88 μg/m3 in October,9.68 μg/m3 in November,and 12.10 μg/m3 in December,respectively.Besides,the periods of November 2 to 6,2005 and December 25 to 29,2007 are selected as two study cases with heavy pollution.The PM10 concentration in the heavy pollution process decreases by 21.56% in November and 20.30% in December if contingency measures are conducted,with the mean concentration of PM10 decreasing by 93.8 μg/m3 in November and 88.4 μg/m3 in December,respectively.During the post-Olympic times,the implementation of temporary restrictions on main local emission was helpful to improve the air quality to a certain extent in Beijing.In the long run,the long term regional environmental coordination and collaboration mechanism connected with systematic measures about local dominant emission reduction is the key to deal with the air pollution in Beijing.
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