基于理性推理的观点演化模型

摘要

A new opinion updating rule is proposed based on Dempster-Shafer evidence theory for individuals to form their opinions with rational reference. Many computer simulations are conducted under different situations. It is found that the common phenomena such as consensus, fragment opinions are observed in square lattices during the opinions evolution, and that information is diffused from the individuals with higher certainty to the uncertain individuals, and the influence of opinion leaders become weaken in the opinion diffusion, and the size of influence is determined by the threshold of individual acceptance of uncertainty.%针对现实生活中个体观点形成中的理性推理过程,提出了一种基于DS(Dempster-Shafer)证据理论的观点更新规则,并在连续观点离散决策的框架下,对个体如何利用其他个体的意见和相关知识来形成自身意见的过程进行建模.实验仿真结果表明,群体中能够出现观点一致、分散等常见的舆论现象,观点演化过程中伴随着知识由确定性个体向不确定性个体的扩散,同时发现在规则网络中,意见领袖的观点的影响力在扩散过程中是逐渐减弱的,其影响范围与个体对知识不确定性的接受程度密切相关.