新疆边境贸易、经济增长与碳排放动态关系实证研究

摘要

在当前共建“丝绸之路经济带”新形势下，新疆面临着与周边国家发展边境贸易的全新历史机遇与挑战。选取新疆1995-2012年边境贸易、经济增长与碳排放的相关数据，运用脉冲响应分析方法对三者之间的动态关系进行了实证研究。结论显示新疆边境贸易促进了碳排放效率的提高，同时，由于经济增长过程中大量能源消耗，也带来了碳排放的增加。通过量化研究提出了解决对策，以期为新疆与周边国家经贸合作、实现新疆碳减排、边境贸易转型升级及“丝绸之路经济带”中的“贸易畅通”新目标提供理论依据。%Xinjiang faces a new historical opportunity and challenge of the development of border trade with neighboring countries,under the new situation of building “the Silk Road Economic Belt”cooperatively. This paper establishes a VAR mode and uses the methods of impulse response analysis to study the dynamic relationship among them,based on the data of Xinjiang’s border trade,economic growth and carbon emis-sions during 1995 -2012.The study shows the border trade promotes the efficiency of carbon emissions, and also brings a lot of carbon emissions due to the large amount of energy consumption in the process of e-conomic growth.Then the paper gives countermeasures so as to provide theoretical basis for Xinjiang to op-erate economic and trade cooperation with neighboring countries,to realize the carbon reduction,the transi-tion and upgrading of border trade and the target of “smooth trade”in “Silk Road Economic Belt”.