我国服务贸易与经济增长关系的实证分析--基于脉冲响应函数方法

摘要

基于VAR模型与脉冲响应函数法，对1982-2013年期间，我国服务贸易进出口与经济发展的关系及其长期动态影响特征的实证研究表明：服务贸易出口对经济增长有较强的正向效应，服务贸易进口对经济增长表现为较弱的负效应，净效应为正。另一方面，经济增长也会对服务贸易进出口产生反向作用，这种反向作用存在着时滞。%In this paper,we use the impulse response function to analysis the characteristics of 1982-2013 in our country during the import and export of service trade and China's economic development and its re⁃lationship to long-term dynamic empirical based on the VAR model. From the impulse response results can be seen:the import and export of service trade will have a certain impact on economic growth,at the same time, the economic growth will have a negative impact on the import and export of service trade ,but this reaction lag exists. Overall,the presence of interactions between service trade and economic growth in China,but the mechanism of this effect remains to be perfect.