气候变化对河西走廊中部地区主要农作物的影响

摘要

Based on temperature,precipitation data collected from six counties of Zhangye in recent 30 years,and the yields and growth periods data of the main crops such as spring wheat and corn,the climate change feature and its impact on yields and growth periods of main crops were analyzed by means of statistic analysis and integral regression methods.Results show that the average temperature in the middle area of Hexi Corridor in recent 30 years presented increasing trend with the climate tendency rate of 3.85 ℃/100 a.The annual mean rainfall increased obviously,in last ten years,the annual mean rainfall was 210.5 mm,but in the 1980s,it was 191.1 mm.Climate warming advanced the seeding periods of spring wheat and corn,and stortened the growth period of spring wheat but extended corn' s.Increase in temperature and precipitation has different impacts on the growth period and yields of both spring wheat and corn,and the effects varied with the regional difference.%利用河西走廊中部的张掖市6县区30 a(1981 ～2010)的气温、降水数据及主要农作物春小麦、玉米的生育期及产量资料,运用数理统计和积分回归进行统计分析了河西走廊中部30 a来的气候变化(温度、降水)特征及气候变化(气温、降水)对主要农作物(春小麦、玉米)生育期及产量的影响.结果表明,随着气候变暖,河西走廊中部30 a年来平均气温总体呈上升趋势,气候倾向率为3.85℃/100 a,各地年降水量均明显增加,年平均降水量从1980年代的191.1 mm增加到近10 a的210.5mm；河西走廊中部气候变暖使该地区春小麦、玉米播种期提前,使小麦的生育期缩短,玉米的生育期延长.气温升高对春小麦、玉米不同生育期及产量形成的影响效应不同；降水增多对春小麦、玉米的各生育期及产量形成呈现出不同的影响效应,且影响效应表现出地域性差异.