NCAR CAM3全球气候模式对亚洲中部干旱区气候变化的模拟检验

摘要

以英国气象局哈德来环流中心提供的连续变化的海温和海冰资料为边界场,用NCAR CAM3全球气候模式对近百年来亚洲中部干旱区气候变化进行模拟,然后利用NCEP再分析资料、英国东安哥拉大学近100 a的CRUTEM2v气温格点序列资料及距平均方根误差、相关系数等方法对模拟的亚洲中部干旱区气候平均场进行检验,结果表明:CAM3.0对亚洲中部干旱区的高度场模拟较好,均方根误差均较小,相关系数较大,相关性较强；温度场除低层700 hPa均方根误差稍大外,其余对流层均较小,并且相关系数比较大；无论对经向风速还是纬向风速,模式模拟的均方差均较大、相关系数较小,模拟的效果较差,其原因尚待进一步研究；地面加热场模拟均方根误差分布具有明显的纬向性,局域和季节差异明显；数值实验模拟出了近百年来亚洲中部干旱区地面气温的变化趋势,但模拟的增温幅度更大,同时对季节变化的模拟存在差异.%Based on the continuous variational SST and sea ice data which provided by UK Met Office Hadley Centre,the climate variation in arid areas of central Asia in recent hundred years was simulated by using the NCAR CAM3 global climate model,then the simulated climate mean field of arid areas in central Asia was tested by using NCEP reanalysis data and CRUTEM2v temperature grid data series in recent 100 years from University of East Anglia and by means of the standardized RMSE of anomaly and correlation coefficient methods.The results show that the simulation effect of the CAM3.0 for the height field was well in the arid areas of central Asia with smaller standardized RMSE of anomaly and higher correlation coefficient.The standardized RMSE of the temperature field was smaller in the whole troposphere except the level of 700 hPa,and the correlation coefficient was higher; Not only for the zonal wind but also for the meridional wind,the RMSE of the simulation results were higher and the correlation coefficient was smaller,the simulation result was bad and the reason wasn' t known ; The RMSE for the heat field had the obvious zonal characteristics,the local and seasonal difference were distinct.The numerical experiments simulated the trend of the surface temperature in recent 100 years in arid areas of central Asia,but the warming tendency of the simulation result was higher,and there was difference for the simulation about seasonal variation of suface temperature.