汛期旱涝趋势预测因子的选择和信息综合及应用

摘要

The stability and reliability for drought/flood trend prediction from the statistical model are depended on the selection and synthesis of the predictors. While selecting predictors, the physical significance of the predictors must be considered. According to the scale correspondence principle, the synthesis of the factors whose time scales correspond with those of the predictands can retain the useful information to the utmost extent. A comparison experiment is conducted for the precipitation field over the Changjiang River Delta in flood season and the result indicates that the method can improve forecast greatly.%建立在统计模型基础上的旱涝趋势预测的稳定性和准确性，依赖于预测因子的选择和综合。该文在选择前期预测因子时，既考虑了因子的物理意义，又从尺度对应原理出发，对与预测对象相应时间尺度的因子作综合处理，最大程度保留了可用预测信息。对长江三角洲汛期降水场进行试验比较，证明该方法能显著提高预测技巧。