气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展

摘要

气候变化已成为当今科学界、各国政府和社会公众普遍关注的环境问题之一，气候变化可能对生态系统和社会经济产生灾难性影响，农业是受气候变化影响最直接的脆弱行业。因此，气候变化对农业生产的影响研究一直是气候变化研究领域中的热点问题之一。该文系统介绍了有关全球气候变化对中国农业生产影响研究的现状与进展，包括气候变化对农业影响的研究方法、大气中温室气体浓度增加对农作物的影响试验、气候变化对农业气候资源的影响、气候变化对农作物生长发育和产量的影响、气候变化对农业种植制度和品种布局的影响、气候变化对农作物气候生产潜力和气候资源利用率的影响等，指出当前在研究气候变化对农业影响评估中存在的问题，提出了今后应加强对气候变化情景和预测模式不确定性的研究、气候变化对农业影响的方法研究。此外，气候变化背景下极端天气气候事件对农业生产的影响以及气候变化对农业病虫害的影响研究等仍较薄弱，有待进一步加强和深入。%Climate change,the main feature of which is global warming,has become one of the important envi-ronmental problems in the world.Also,it is a matter of general concern by the scientific community,gov-ernments and the social public.Climate change has brought a series of problems that beyond the range of nature changes in the earth itself,which poses a serious threat to human survival and social economy.Ag-riculture,especially crop production and food security,is one of the largest and the most direct industry affected by climate change.Therefore,the impact of climate change on agricultural production is always one of the hottest issues in the field of climate change.The present situation and progress in the research field of climate change impact on agricultural production in China is summarized systematically,introdu-cing research methods,the progress in the experiment of greenhouse gases concentration enrichment in the atmosphere impact on crops,impacts and future trends of climate change on agricultural climate resources, the possible impact of climate change on crop growth and yield,impacts and future trends of climate change on agricultural planting system and varieties distribution,impact of climate change on crop poten-tial productivity,impact of measures of adapting to climate change to increase the utilization ratio of agri-cultural climate resources and so on.On the basis,current problems in the impact assessment of climate change on agriculture is proposed too.In order to improve the reliability and rationality of the impact as-sessment for climate change on agriculture,more attention needs to be paid to the research of uncertainty of future climate change scenarios,model prediction and evaluation method.In addition,further resear-ches are also needed about the impact of extreme weather events under climate change on agricultural pro-duction,the impact of climate change on agricultural plant diseases and insect pests,impacts of climate change on cash crops,fruit,animal husbandry and farmland ecosystem.