解析法在安徽电网中短期电量预测的实证研究

摘要

为了提高中短期负荷预测的准确度,本文尝试采用解析法对安徽电网中短期用电量开展预测研究。研究结果显示,解析法与传统的延伸预测法相比预测产生偏差的幅度最小,是一种有效的中短期电量预测的基本方法,适宜于安徽电网月度全社会用电量预测。%For improving the accuracy of load forecasting in short and medium term,the paper attempts to predict Anhui grid medium and short term power consumption by analytical method.The result shows that the analytical method is a effective way because of its minimum forecast error comparing with the traditional extension forecast method,applying to predict all social power consumption per month of Anhui grid.