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我国冬季持续极端低温分布特征

     

摘要

[Objective ] The research aimed to study the distribution characteristic of winter continuous extreme low temperature in China. [Method] Based on the daily minimum temperature data in winter during 1961 -2008 in 195 observatories, the continuous extreme low temperature event (cold night) which happened in winter in China and the distribution characteristic of accumulated temperature anomaly in 48 years were analyzed by using the actual probability distribution threshold method which was put forward by Li Qingxiang et al. [ Result] Beside Northeast China, Northwest China and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau where the geographical position was northerly, and the altitude was high, the long-time (above 5 d) extreme low temperature event was also easy to happen in the south of Yangtze River, especially Guizhou, Guangxi, Hunan and so on. The continuous extreme low temperature event in the middle and lower reaches of Yellow River was the least. Started from the metaphase of the 1980s, the frequency and trend of continuous extreme low temperature event decreased. But in 1992, 2000 and 2007, the low temperature event which continued above 7 d was more than the average. The accumulated cold in January in 48 years was the strongest. The second one was in February, and the smallest was in December. The accumulated cold in Northeast China and the north of Inner Mongolia was the biggest in December and January. The accumulated cold in the north of Xinjiang was the biggest in February. In the whole winter, the accumulated cold in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was the smallest. The chilling injury was easier to happen in Guizhou, Guangxi and Hunan than other south areas in December and February. The occurrence probability of chilling injury in most areas of Szechwan Basin, Yunnan and Qingling Mountains in the central China was smaller than that in other areas. [ Conclusion] The research provided the reference basis for analyzing the influence of chilling injury on the agriculture in China.%[目的]研究我国冬季持续极端低温分布特征.[方法]利用我国195个测站1961 ~2008年冬季的日最低温度资料、在采用李庆祥等提出的实际概率分布阈值法的基础上,分析48年来我国冬季发生的持续极端低温事件(冷夜)和累积温度距平的分布特征.[结果]易发生长时间(5d以上)极端低温事件的地区除了东北、西北、青藏高原等地理位置偏北和高海拔区域外,长江以南地区,尤其是贵州、广西、湖南等地也是易发地区,黄河中下游地区发生持续极端低温事件最少.从20世纪80年代中期开始出现持续极端低温事件的频次趋势减少,但1992、2000、2007年出现持续7d以上的事件较平均偏多.48年中1月积寒最强,2月其次,12月最小;12和1月东北和内蒙北部积寒最大,2月新疆北部积寒最大;整个冬季青藏高原受积寒最小;贵州、广西、湖南等地12和2月较南方其他地区更易发生寒害;四川盆地大部、云南和我国中部地区秦岭一带则发生寒害的概率较我国其他地区小.[结论]该研究为寒害对我国农业的影响分析提供参考依据.

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