[目的]分析近50年西北地区春季降水异常与Key海区海温异常的关系.[方法]利用近50年西北地区月平均降水资料和全球逐月海温格点资料,采用相关分析和SVD分析方法,探讨了赤道中东太平洋的海温异常对我国西北地区春季降水的影响.[结果]对于西北地区春季降水,选取前一年8～9月为海温关键时段,赤道中东太平洋海区为海温关键区,简称Key海区(1250～85°W,50S～10°N);相关分析表明,近50年西北地区春季降水与赤道中东太平洋海区,尤其是Key海区海温(前一年8～9月平均)有较好的正相关关系;SVD分析表明,西北地区春季降水异常具有同位相分布的特征,前一年8～9月赤道中东太平洋海温有较大的正相关系数,尤其在Key海区区有显著的耦合正相关.[结论]该研究为我国西北地区春季旱涝的气候预测提供了理论依据.%[ Objective] The aim was to study the relationship between spring precipitation anomaly in Northwest China and sea surface temperature anomaly ( SSTA) in the Key region in recent 50 years. [ Method] Based on monthly average precipitation in Northwest China and global monthly sea surface temperature (SST) grid data, the effects of SSTA in middle-east equator pacific Ocean on spring precipitation anomaly in Northwest China were discussed by means of correlation and SVD analysis. [ Result] For spring precipitation in Northwest China, the key period of SST was from August to September in former year, and the middle-east equator pacific Ocean (125° -85° W,5° S - 10° N) was named " Key region" ; correlation analysis showed that there was obvious positive correlation between spring precipitation in Northwest China and SSTA (monthly average from August to September in former year) in middle-east equator pacific Ocean, especially Key region SVD analysis revealed that spring precipitation anomaly in Northwest China distributed in phase, while SST in middle-east equator pacific Ocean from August to September in former year had higher positive correlation coefficient, and there was obvious positive couple correlation in Key region. [ Conclusion ] The study could provide theoretic foundation for the prediction of drought and flood in Northwest China.
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