According to the latest amended agricultural economic statistical data from 1996 to 2009 in Henan Statnstical Yearbook -2010 ,by selecting and establishing the optimized grey model of logarithmic new developed coefficient, we conduct the empirical analysis and forecast research on the grain output and the relevant main economic indices in Henan Province from 2010 to 2015. The results show that the grain output of Henan Province in 2010 wilt reach 54. 895 8 million tons, and it will break through 60 million tons at 60. 17 million tons in 2015. In years ahead, the grain output of Henan Province will develop to a new stage steadily, which guarantees the national grain supply and socio - economic sustainable development forcibly.%根据<河南统计年鉴-2010)最新修定的1996～2009年农业经济统计资料,通过筛选并建立对数新发展系数的优化灰色模型,对2010～2015年河南省粮食产量以及相关主要经济指标进行实证分析和预测研究.结果表明,2010年河南省粮食产量将达到5489.58万t,到2015年将突破6000万t大关,约达6017万t.未来几年河南省粮食生产将在稳步上升中迈上新的发展台阶,为全国粮食供给和社会经济可持续发展提供强有力的保障.
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